Ontario Grid Digital Twin
AI-Powered Transmission
Grid Intelligence
A high-fidelity digital twin of Ontario's IESO transmission network. Quantifies data centre co-location capacity, load headroom, and stochastic reliability risk across 24 modelled grid nodes using real IESO planning data.
Grid Nodes Modelled
24substations
Peak Grid Demand
23,891MW
DC Load Scenarios
500MW
Monte Carlo Trials
1,000scenarios
Platform
Analysis Modules
GRID CENTRES
Transmission Nodes
Explore Ontario's 24 modelled transmission substations. Interactive PyDeck map with load, headroom, and connection topology.
DATA CENTRES
DC Co-Location Analysis
Analyse where proposed data centre loads can best be absorbed across the Ontario grid with the least reliability impact.
NODE ANALYSIS
Deep-Dive Node Model
Select any transmission node and examine capacity, load factor, headroom, and full Monte Carlo reliability risk distribution.
RELIABILITY
Grid Reliability Engine
Run 1,000-scenario stochastic simulations to quantify overload probability and safety margins for any substation + DC load pair.
CHARTER
Project Charter
Research goals, methodology, data sources, modelling assumptions, and Centauri Research's analytical framework.
Methodology
Modelling Approach
Load Flow Simulation
Each node is modelled with real IESO substation capacity ratings. Base demand is drawn from 2024 IESO Adequacy Outlook seasonal peak forecasts, disaggregated to the transmission node level.
Monte Carlo Reliability
A 1,000-trial stochastic engine perturbs demand (±15% normal distribution) and DC load (±5%) to compute overload probability distributions across each simulated future.
DC Co-Location Scoring
Each node is scored by available headroom, load factor, grid voltage class, and proximity to the proposed DC load centroid to produce a composite suitability index.
Data Sources
Primary Data
| Source | Scope |
|---|---|
| IESO Adequacy Outlook 2024 | Demand forecasts, peak projections |
| IESO Generator Output by Fuel | Real-time generation mix |
| Ontario Demand Response Registry | DR asset locations & capacities |
| OPA 20-Year Transmission Plan | Grid topology & substation ratings |
| BCUC DC Interconnect Studies | Data centre load profiles |
| Canada Green Building Registry | Large facility energy consumption |